Prediction Markets combine the attractiveness of a game with fundamental economic principles in order to provide added value for the media industry.
PR Instrument: In order to generate attention for a web presence, static content is no longer sufficient. Since Prediction Markets are perceived by the web site's users as a game, they contribute to the attractiveness of a web site: When used for instance for election forecasting, the prediction markets motivate visitors to
- gather information from the related content offered by the web site,
- remain on the site to use the information in the market, and
- return once new information becomes available that changes the private estimation about the outcome.
Prediction Instrument: In addition to raising the attractiveness of the web site, prediction markets are excellent forecasting tools. They permit to gather and aggregate the opinions far more effectively and efficiently than classical polls. Since the specific formulation allows to dispense with the usual requirements like representativeness, prediction markets are also simpler to deploy and use. In addition the markets react very fast to relevant changes in the environment and, contrary to polls, provide continuous real-time predictions.
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